Hydrological responses of a valley‐bottom wetland to land‐use/land‐cover change in a South African catchment: making a case for wetland restoration

Valley‐bottom wetlands are valuable assets as they provide many ecosystem services to mankind. Despite their value, valley‐bottom wetlands are often exploited and land‐use/land‐cover (LULC) change results in trade‐offs in ecosystem services. We coupled physically based hydrological modeling and spatial analysis to examine the effects of LULC change on water‐related ecosystem services in the Kromme catchment: an important water‐providing catchment for the city of Port Elizabeth. LULC scenarios were constructed to match 5 different decades in the last 50 years to explore the potential effects of restoring the catchment to different historic benchmarks. In the Kromme catchment, valley‐bottom wetlands have declined by 84%, driven by key LULC changes: an increase in irrigated land (307 ha) and invasion by alien trees (336 ha). If the wetlands were restored to the relatively pristine extent and condition of the 1950s, riverflow could increase by approximately 1.13 million m³/a, about 6% of the current supply to Port Elizabeth. Wetland restoration would also significantly improve the catchment's ability to absorb extreme rainfall events, decreasing flood damage. We conclude that in the face of the water scarcity in this region, all ecosystem services, particularly those related to water flow regulation, should be taken into account by decision makers in charge of land zonation. Zonation decisions should not continue to be made on the basis of provisioning ecosystem services alone (i.e. food provision or dam yield). We recommend prioritization of the preservation and restoration of valley‐bottom wetlands providing water‐related ecosystem services to settlements downstream.     

Cost‐effective ecological restoration

Ecological restoration is a multibillion dollar industry critical for improving degraded habitat. However, most restoration is conducted without clearly defined success measures or analysis of costs. Outcomes are influenced by environmental conditions that vary across space and time, yet such variation is rarely considered in restoration planning. Here, we present a cost‐effectiveness analysis of terrestrial restoration methods to determine how practitioners may restore the highest native plant cover per dollar spent. We recorded costs of 120 distinct methods and described success in terms of native versus non‐native plant germination, growth, cover, and density. We assessed effectiveness using a basic, commonly used metric (% native plant cover) and developed an index of cost‐effectiveness (% native cover per dollar spent on restoration). We then evaluated success of multiple methods, given environmental variation across topography and multiple years, and found that the most successful method for restoring high native plant cover is often different from the method that results in the largest area restored per dollar expended, given fixed mitigation budgets. Based on our results, we developed decision‐making trees to guide practitioners through established phases of restoration—site preparation, seeding and planting, and maintenance. We also highlight where additional research could inform restoration practice, such as improved seasonal weather forecasts optimizing allocation of funds in time or valuation practices that include costs of specific outcomes in the collection of in lieu fees.     

Isolating the role of soil resources,defoliation, and interspecific competition on early establishment of the late successional bunchgrass Festuca campestris

Native grasslands are valued for biodiversity and supporting dormant season grazing, but are prone to invasion. In western Canada, revegetation of Festuca campestris grasslands may be hindered by Poa pratensis, an invasive grass. To determine the competitive interaction of these species during establishment, two greenhouse experiments were conducted where F. campestris seedlings were planted in monocultures or mixtures with P. pratensis. The first experiment used equal‐aged (3‐month old) seedlings of both species, while the second experiment used unequal‐aged seedlings (4‐month‐old F. campestris and 2‐month‐old P. pratensis). Seedling performance was measured in response to manipulations of water and nitrogen, defoliation, and plant neighbor. While water and nitrogen reduced the biomass and vegetative reproduction (tillering) of F. campestris, exposure to P. pratensis most strongly limited the growth of F. campestris seedlings regardless of other treatments. More frequent and consistent decreases in F. campestris due to P. pratensis were observed in older F. campestris seedlings than younger seedlings. Defoliation also reduced the growth of F. campestris, and the added presence of P. pratensis during defoliation further enhanced these reductions in younger, equal‐aged bunchgrass seedlings. Overall, these results suggest that when restoring native F. campestris grasslands, early establishment may be improved by reducing the negative impacts of P. pratensis, and avoiding severe defoliation.     

Intraguild predation by Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) on native insects in Europe: molecular detection from field samples

Intraguild predation (IGP) is a potential mechanism of negative effects on native species populations by invasive non‐native species such as Harmonia axyridis. Molecular techniques (polymerase chain reaction) were used to probe for the presence of various insect (coccinellid, syrphid and chrysopid) prey DNA in the guts of 177 H. axyridis larvae field‐collected in England, France, Germany, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in 2010. Three of the four target prey species were detected in the guts of H. axyridis at the following rates: Adalia decempunctata 9.6%, Adalia bipunctata 2.8% and Episyrphus balteatus 2.8%. IGP on Chrysoperla carnea was not detected. IGP detection of at least one target species was made in England, France, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, but not in Germany. These results strengthen the evidence that H. axyridis is a very generalist predator. Results are discussed in the context of their ecological significance.     

Changes in the distribution of multispecies pest assemblages affect levels of crop damage in warming tropical Andes

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process‐based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co‐occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co‐occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade‐off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.     

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non‐native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species–environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our ‘best’ model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium. However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed.     

The cold‐water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century

The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold‐water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non‐native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd‐sourced biological datasets with high‐resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids—bull trout (BT) and cutthroat trout (CT). Under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, refugia with high probabilities of trout population occupancy (>0.9) were predicted to exist (33–68 BT refugia; 917–1425 CT refugia). Most refugia are on public lands (>90%) where few currently have protected status in National Parks or Wilderness Areas (<15%). Forecasts of refuge locations could enable protection of key watersheds and provide a foundation for climate smart planning of conservation networks. Using cold water as a ‘climate shield’ is generalizable to other species and geographic areas because it has a strong physiological basis, relies on nationally available geospatial data, and mines existing biological datasets. Importantly, the approach creates a framework to integrate data contributed by many individuals and resource agencies, and a process that strengthens the collaborative and social networks needed to preserve many cold‐water fish populations through the 21st century.     

Hurricanes accelerated the Florida–Bahamas lionfish invasion

In this study, we demonstrate how perturbations to the Florida Current caused by hurricanes are relevant to the spread of invasive lionfish from Florida to the Bahamas. Without such perturbations, this current represents a potential barrier to the transport of planktonic lionfish eggs and larvae across the Straits of Florida. We further show that once lionfish became established in the Bahamas, hurricanes significantly hastened their spread through the island chain. We gain these insights through: (1) an analysis of the direction and velocity of simulated ocean currents during the passage of hurricanes through the Florida Straits and (2) the development of a biophysical model that incorporates the tolerances of lionfish to ocean climate, their reproductive strategy, and duration that the larvae remain viable in the water column. On the basis of this work, we identify 23 occasions between the years 1992 and 2006 in which lionfish were provided the opportunity to breach the Florida Current. We also find that hurricanes during this period increased the rate of spread of lionfish through the Bahamas by more than 45% and magnified its population by at least 15%. Beyond invasive lionfish, we suggest that extreme weather events such as hurricanes likely help to homogenize the gene pool for all Caribbean marine species susceptible to transport.     

Integrating metabolic performance,thermal tolerance,and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming

Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q₁₀ for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade‐off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing temperature helps providing more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to warming.     

Exotic grasses and nitrate enrichment alter soil carbon cycling along an urban–rural tropical forest gradient

Urban areas are expanding rapidly in tropical regions, with potential to alter ecosystem dynamics. In particular, exotic grasses and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition simultaneously affect tropical urbanized landscapes, with unknown effects on properties like soil carbon (C) storage. We hypothesized that (H1) soil nitrate (NO₃^?) is elevated nearer to the urban core, reflecting N deposition gradients. (H2) Exotic grasslands have elevated soil NO₃^? and decreased soil C relative to secondary forests, with higher N promoting decomposer activity. (H3) Exotic grasslands have greater seasonality in soil NO₃^? vs. secondary forests, due to higher sensitivity of grassland soil moisture to rainfall. We predicted that NO₃^? would be positively related to dissolved organic C (DOC) production via changes in decomposer activity. We measured six paired grassland/secondary forest sites along a tropical urban‐to‐rural gradient during the three dominant seasons (hurricane, dry, and early wet). We found that (1) soil NO₃^? was generally elevated nearer to the urban core, with particularly clear spatial trends for grasslands. (2) Exotic grasslands had lower soil C than secondary forests, which was related to elevated decomposer enzyme activities and soil respiration. Unexpectedly, soil NO₃^? was negatively related to enzyme activities, and was lower in grasslands than forests. (3) Grasslands had greater soil NO₃^? seasonality vs. forests, but this was not strongly linked to shifts in soil moisture or DOC. Our results suggest that exotic grasses in tropical regions are likely to drastically reduce soil C storage, but that N deposition may have an opposite effect via suppression of enzyme activities. However, soil NO₃^? accumulation here was higher in urban forests than grasslands, potentially related to of aboveground N interception. Net urban effects on C storage across tropical landscapes will likely vary depending on the mosaic of grass cover, rates of N deposition, and responses by local decomposer communities.